It is the nature of reality that things are complicated. People are complicated. The things we assume to be true, may or may not be, and an honest person recognizes that the doubts are real. The uncertainty of truth means that no matter how strongly we strive for it, we can very much be wrong about many things. In fact, given that most matters have many possibilities, the base likelihood of getting things right is about 1/N, where N is the number of possibilities that the matter can have. As possibilities increase, our likelihood of being correct diminishes.
Thus, humility as a default position is wise. We are, on average, less than 50% likely to have accurate beliefs about the world. Most of the things we believe at any given time are probably wrong, or at least, not the exact truth. In that sense, Socrates was right.
That being said, it remains important to take reasonable actions given our rational beliefs. It is only by exploring reality and testing our beliefs that we can become more accurate and exceed the base probabilities. This process is difficult and fraught with peril. Our general tendency is to seek to reinforce our biases, rather than to seek truths that challenge them. If we seek to understand, we must be willing to let go of our biases and face difficult realities.
The world is complex. Most people are struggling just to survive. They don’t have the luxury to ask questions about right and wrong. To ask them to see the error of their ways is often tantamount to asking them to starve. The problem is not people themselves, but the system that was formed by history. The system is not a conscious being. It is merely a set of artifices that people built in their desperation to survive in a world largely indifferent to their suffering and happiness. This structure now stands and allows most people to survive, and sometimes to thrive, but it is optimized for basic survival rather than fairness.
A fair world is desirable, but ultimately one that is extraordinarily difficult to create. It’s a mistake to think that people were disingenuous when they tried, in the past, to create a better world for all. It seems they tried and failed, not for lack of intention, but because the challenge is far greater than imagined. Society is a complex thing. People’s motivations are varied and innumerable. Humans make mistakes with the best of intentions.
To move forward requires taking a step in the right direction. But how do we know what direction to take? It is at best an educated guess with our best intuitions and thoughts. But the truth is we can never be certain that what we do is best. The universe is like an imperfect information game. The unknowns prevent us from making the right move all the time in retrospect. We can only choose what seems like the best action at a given moment.
This uncertainty limits the power of all agents in the universe who lack the clarity of omniscience. It is thus, an error to assign God-like powers to an AGI for instance. But more importantly, it means that we should be cautious of our own confidence. What we know is very little. Anyone who says otherwise should be suspect.